Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League weekend card and tips up a best bet 10/1 treble.
Arsenal's defensive metrics from set pieces take a noticeable wobble when Gabriel is missing from the heart of their backline and the numbers are too stark to ignore. In their last 10 Premier League matches without the Brazilian, Arsenal have shipped seven set piece goals and allowed opposition sides to generate around three shots per game from dead-ball situations.
For a team that usually prides itself on control and organisation, that's a sizeable drop-off.
Aston Villa, whose set-piece threat is among the most well-drilled in the division scoring eight goals from such situations - the third most of any team, know how to turn pressure into panic and goals.
If Villa get the dead-ball volume right, Arsenal could be in for a tough afternoon. In a low scoring game both centre-backs Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres are live outsiders to score the first goal at 40/1 the pair with Sky Bet.
Bournemouth's defeat to Everton was the worst performance in Andoni Iraola's tenure for my money. If you didn't know who the manager was there was no way you'd have guessed that was an Iraola team.
It lacked all the core principles he demands from a football team: forward passing, tempo, pressing and intent. His team are in a sticky patch. It's now four defeats in their last five and 13 goals conceded in that run.
Iraola is such a genius, he'll get it right and start to find a formula again but his football is all about bravery and playing with conviction and confidence, so when a couple of players start to take a step back it can make the whole structure very easy to play against. Chelsea may just find that here and look a slice of value at 11/10 with Sky Bet to win.
When Sean Dyche and David Moyes football teams clash, the goals tend to pack their bags and take the night off. Yes, I pretended to be shocked too.
Their philosophies overlap one another: slow the game down where possible, deny space, win duels, control territory and squeeze matches into low-margin battles. Both guys are friends to the under goals bettor.
Across the last 10 head-to-head meetings between Moyes-led and Dyche-led sides, only 15 goals have been scored - that's 1.5 goals per game - with six of those fixtures going under 1.5 goals.
It's 2/1 with Sky Bet for the game to go under that line again.
If there is ever a weekend where the Premier League rips up the script and shocks are live, it's this one - the first Gameweek after a December midweek schedule. Legs are heavy, rotations get messy, and the supposedly "banker" odds-on favourites suddenly look nothing of the sort.
The last 15 teams who have gone off odds-on in this exact Gameweek over the past several seasons have all failed to win by more than one goal. Not one has justified the price. Manchester City are part of that sample size when scraping past Luton 2-1 in the 23/24 season despite going off 1/9 to win the match.
And this week, City, still juggling rotations, searching for defensive cohesion and the allure of Real Madrid on the horizon, may just walk straight into the trap.
Sunderland, who have beaten Chelsea and drawn to Liverpool and Arsenal this season, are worth a swing at 9/1 with Sky Bet to win but the shrewder play is for them on a +2 handicap at 11/10.
This is a very different version of Kyle Walker to the one we saw at Manchester City. At Burnley, he's defending far more often, in far more open spaces and the numbers show exactly how much strain that's putting on his aging limbs.
And that strain is turning into fouls. Lots of them.
Walker has made 16 fouls in his last 10 games. And few wingers in the league attack defenders with as much tempo and directness as Anthony Gordon.
He's drawing 2.7 fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, elite numbers for a wide attacker, and he loves driving hard at full backs.
Walker to make two or more fouls again is overpriced at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
If the footballing gods have a sense of humour - and they do have previous - then Thomas Frank facing a Brentford side led by the set piece coach that Frank hired at Brentford, feels like a script already half-written.
Frank left Brentford as the man who helped embed a set piece philosophy that became the envy of the league. Now he's in the opposite dugout with his new side still ironing out lots of flaws, this looks made for Keith Andrews to conjure up some set-piece mastery.
Football is a funny old game and one of Nathan Collins (12/1 with Sky Bet) or Sepp van den Berg (11/) to score would tickle me and betting balance.
If you collate the numbers since Daniel Farke switched to a 5-3-2 in the second half against Manchester City, Leeds have won the aggregate score against Manchester City and Chelsea by 5-2. For someone who has received lots of stick for not being able to be flexible enough, he's silenced that noise in a big way.
And after feeling like the walls were closing in on Farke, Leeds now head into this Liverpool game with belief and momentum. Elland Road will be looking at this as another free swing type of night where ruffling some Liverpool feathers and having a go just might be enough to wobble the Reds off their game again.
As one thing we have learned from the past week is that beating West Ham does NOT mean your crisis is over. Leeds on the double chance at Evens with Sky Bet looks a fantastic bet to attack.
Freddie Potts has made a big impression since stepping into the West Ham midfield, adding much needed steel, aggression and tenacity to an area that was lacking under Graham Potter. The midfielder has been fouled eight times in his last four starts and across his last 31 club starts he's averaging 1.8 fouls won per-game.
Only three teams have made more fouls since the start of last season than Brighton, who play a very high-tempo and aggressive game in midfield. Potts to be fouled at least twice at 5/4 with Sky Bet is a tasty prop to attack.
This is usually part of the season where Marco Silva's team find rhythm and are peak performance level. Whilst other teams, like Crystal Palace, are flagging due to fighting on multiple fronts, Silva's team play with an added edge. In the period after the final international break and Boxing Day, Silva has a Premier League win strike-rate of 52 per cent from 19 matches. That's a huge figure for a club with the expectations of Fulham.
One of their wins that has slipped under the radar was their 1-0 win over Sunderland at home. The metrics behind that win were so strong, winning the expected goals battle 2.16-0.17 and posting 24 shots, 18 of which came from inside the box. They dominated a team who have proved to be a very difficult opponent for Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool this season.
And Palace are a team to bet against when the time is right during this hectic period. This is their fifth game in 16 days and Oliver Glasner has made the fewest changes to Premier League starting XI's this season (12). Palace are a fantastic team but this group can't keep going to the well and performing at the highest level. Fulham to win at 8/5 with Sky Bet does the job.
Hold your breath, Wolves fans, this isn't going to be pretty.
Wolves have joint-fewest points (2) after 14 games by any team in a top division season and have lost their last seven Premier League games, going 495 minutes without a goal. Rob Edwards has got the same amount of bounce as throwing a brick on the floor.
But in football, these runs don't last forever. They snap. And when they do, it's often in a fixture where the market has started to write the goal-shy side off.
A six-hour scoring drought isn't a reflection of a team with no threat, it's a reflection of a team due a correction and variance. And there are few defences better suited to gifting opportunities right now than Manchester United's away from home. Since April 1, it's no joke that United have gone 12 away games without a clean sheet, conceding 24 goals - only Bournemouth have conceded more in that period. Also, their expected goals against of 1.72 per 90 is the worst of any ever-present Premier League side during those 12 games.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is the play at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
